This thing in Libya just finished up last month, right? Well, Herman Cain missed all of it.
Watch the whole thing.
This thing in Libya just finished up last month, right? Well, Herman Cain missed all of it.
Watch the whole thing.
A hot batch of polling data from Rasmussen, CNN, and PPP (Public Policy Polling) dropped today, and the early interpretations say that all signs point to Newt Gingrich as the newest leader in the GOP race, supplanting the sliding Herman Cain.
The latest returns from PPP show Newt at 28% (+13% since last month), Cain at 25% (-5%), and Mitt Romney at 18% (-4%). No other candidates received more than 6% of the vote.
Shocking, no? It appears that Newt has happily taken on the support of Republican voters fleeing the still-hemorrhaging Rick Perry and the slowly-sinking Herman Cain and ridden the new support all the way to the top of the polls.
The PPP poll, which collected data from 576 Republican primary voters (60% of whom were above the age of 46, 32% of whom believe that the Obama campaign leaked the Herman Cain sexual harassment story), pegged Gingrich’s favorability at an incomprehensibly high 68% favorable, 23% unfavorable (68/23, +45%). Among respondents that identified themselves as tea partiers, Gingrich had the highest favorability (81/14).
Only Cain (57/31) and Romney (51/38) had net positive favorablity scores among the remaining candidates. Perry (35/49), Paul (31/52), and Bachmann (40/41) were all viewed unfavorably by a majority of respondants.
Poll data released by CNN show a similar trend among Republican voters (though this poll has Romney and Gingrich in a virtual tie atop the field). These numbers show Gingrich’s favorability among his own party’s voters to be very high (61/21), compared to Romney (55/27), Cain (47/31), Perry (43/37), Paul (40/32), and Bachmann (41/33).
When CNN’s polling was opened up to the general population (not just registered Republicans), however, the favorability ratings for Newt plummeted.
Among the general population, Gingrich has a net negative favorablity of (36/39). You have to be a pretty polarizing guy to generate a +40% approval gap from Republicans and a -40% approval gap from everybody else.
Behind the split, there may be remnant’s of Newt’s history of unpopularity.
The aggregated CNN/USA Today/Gallup polling dating back to 1994, which was included with the CNN poll data illustrates the trajectory of his career. During his time in Congress, which he now touts the cornerstone of his résumé, his positive favorability was net positive among the general population only once (November 1994). During his time as the Speaker of the House, Newt’s popularity bottomed out. During 1996 and 1997, he consistently posted a favorable/unfavorable score of about (25/62), before finishing his congressional career at (32/53).
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And then, in Washington, there is Barack Obama.
Today’s Gallup numbers show the President sitting at 43% approval, 49% disapproval, up modestly from last month’s 38/53 pit.
He has taken a beating to be sure, and when he goes up against an anonymous Republican candidate, he loses.
When you put a face next to the R, however, things begin to look a bit better for Barry O. The CNN poll shows Obama beating Newt Gingrich by eight points (53/45), about the same margin by which Obama beat John McCain in 2008. Obama also beats Cain (by 10) and Perry (by seven) in a head to head race. Only Mitt Romney is polling ahead of Barack Obama in a general election at this point, leading the president by four points, 51/47.
Right-leaning pollster Rasmussen released an even bleaker picture for Newt’s general election prospects, projecting that he’d lose to Obama by twelve points (50/38).
Given his current meteoric favorability rating among Republicans and his high level of name recognition (only Mitt Romney’s is higher, according to Gallup), it is hard to believe that Gingrich will be able to rise much higher. The increased exposure that he will receive has more potential to hurt Newt, given his somewhat scandalous past and his highly partisan record, than to help his apparently sterling reputation.
For the time being, the Newtmentum is in effect, but it seems that it will fall short of propelling him to the finish line.
Okay, let’s do this. Here’s Herman Cain accuser number four, Sharon Bialek in a press conference today.
These are the first specific details of alleged sexual misconduct to surface since Politco broke the whole Herman Cain sexual harassment story more than a week ago. So far, the details of cases one through three and the identities of the women involved have not been released. Sharon, however, had plenty of details.